Active Longevity as Part of the Sustainable Ageing Agenda in the BRICS Countries

In the coming decades, the ageing of the population—as measured by an increase in the share of the 60-and-older cohort in the overall population—will become one of the most critical challenges to attaining sustainable development in the majority of BRICS countries. It will require incorporating yet one more dimension in the overall concept of sustainable development across these countries—the dimension of sustainable ageing. By sustainable ageing, we mean the process of adapting healthcare systems, the economy, and overall living conditions so as to enable supporting the quality of life of a rapidly expanding population cohort of senior citizens and the elderly in ways that do not contribute to the depletion of natural resources or the overburdending of social and healthcare infrastructure. Given that the accelerated ageing of the populations of BRICS countries overlaps with an entire range of other unresolved problems in social and economic development, the search for viable solutions to this challenge can serve as a sound basis for a cooperative dialogue within the intergovernmental association, the necessity of which was noted in the Johannesburg Declaration adopted by the BRICS member states in 2023.

The level of ageing and the rapidity of its pace vary greatly across the countries of the association. Already today, the subject of population ageing requires special attention in Russia, which has the highest share of citizens aged 60 and older within the general population, as well as in China and Brazil, where this key metric is rapidly approaching the Russian level (24%, 20.6%, and 16.1%, respectively, in 2024). Conversely, the problem of population ageing remains largely irrelevant for Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia (registering 5% each in the 60-plus-cohort metric), which are both now only at the early stages of the epidemiological transition and are still demonstrating high birthrates. In Egypt, the share of the older generation in the overall population is slightly higher at 8%, according to 2024 data. In this regard, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (at 3.5% in the 60-plus-cohort metric) stands out, inasmuch as its immigration and labour market policies ensure that the Persian Gulf country enjoys a high share of the working-age population among the UAE's permanent resident population. South Africa, India, Indonesia, and Iran demonstrate moderate levels in this metric, with the percentage of the 60-and-older cohort in each country amounting to approximately 10–11%; however, as demographic forecasts show, this state of affairs is changing very rapidly.

According to the average scenario under the United Nations' demographic forecast up to the year 2100, the share of the 60-plus-cohort in the populations of Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE will—while seeing some modest growth—remain the lowest among all BRICS member states at forecasted levels of 22.6%, 20.9%, and 14.9%, respectively, in 2100. However, the situation is expected to change in a number of countries. Thus, already by 2030, Russia will no longer be the country with the highest percentage of senior citizens within BRICS, as China is expected to edge out Russia to take the top spot in this metric at 26.4%. By mid-century, the share of the 60-plus-cohort within the Chinese population is expected to rise to 40%, while it is forecast to exceed 30% in the populations of Russia, Brazil, and Iran. Right up to 2050 in Iran, and then up to 2080 in China, population trends will see the highest rates of population ageing among the BRICS countries and, in fact, some of the highest population ageing rates in the world. According to demographic trends, Russia is the only country where the second half of the 21st century will not see such intensive growth in the share of senior citizens, but will more likely demonstrate a declining trend in this metric. By 2100, Russia is forecast to rank in sixth (6th) place, behind China, Iran, Brazil, India, and Indonesia.

The driver of ageing in the BRICS countries is the rapid reduction in the birthrate, whereas the mortality rate is decreasing at a slower and more uneven pace. As of 2023, life expectancy (longevity) for those born in BRICS countries varied from a low of 66.1 years (South Africa) to a high of 82.9 years (UAE). Moreover, in the majority of countries this metric lies in the range of of 70–80 years: the assessment for both sexes (genders) as of 2023 for Indonesia was 71.1 years, while in Egypt it was 71.6 years, for India it was 72 years, for Russia it was 73.2 years, for Brazil it was 75.8 years, for Iran it was 77.7 years, for China it was 78.0 years, and for Saudi Arabia it was 78.7 years. At the same time, a fundamental gender gap in this metric continues to prevail across all of these countries: men on average live shorter lives than women. This gender gap is especially visible in Russia, where it constitutes fully 11.8 years, as well as in South Africa (7.0 years) and Ethiopia (6.6 years). The narrowest longevity gender gaps are seen in the UAE (2.2 years) and India (3.1 years).

In the context of a changing age structure, it is particularly important to achieve progress in improving the health of both the working age and senior (retired) population cohorts, including through efforts to reduce instances of chronic non-communicable diseases and so-called socially conditioned diseases, or "lifestyle diseases," which are linked to a given country's level of development and social inequality. Without such a reduction, the mortality level will lead to a situation wherein a growing segment of the population will spend a greater number of years in poor health and consequently will face a diminishing capacity to independently care for themselves. At present, the BRICS countries demonstrate significant variations in standardised age-based mortality rates in four key categories of non-communicable diseases, namely cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease. According to the UN's Global Sustainable Development Report (GSDR), in 2021 this metric varied from 11.6% up to 26% among the population in the 30–70 age cohort, and the BRICS countries can be loosely categorised into two different groups. Group I with high percentages (above 20%), which includes Egypt (26.0%), India (23.6%), South Africa (22.7%), Russia (22.4%), and Indonesia (21.9%). Group II, which consists of the UAE (11.6%), Saudi Arabia (13.6%), Iran (13.9%), Brazil (14.5%), China (15.9%), and Ethiopia (16.8%). An analysis of trends over the period 2009–2024 shows that the gap between the two groups persists, and moreover the trajectory of both metrics run parallel overall without any significant convergence.

Despite the significant disparities in demographic development, in virtually all BRICS countries, with the exception of Russia, as compared to Western countries, shifts in the age structure are occurring much faster and are overlaid over a much lower level of economic development; they are becoming "old" before they become wealthy. This, in turn, gives rise to serious challenges to the long-term prospects for social and economic sustainability.

Population ageing, resulting in shrinking population numbers and rising workforce age, puts long-term economic growth opportunities into question against a background of potentially diminished capabilities for innovation and labour productivity. Intergenerational and interfamily ties, which have traditionally been strong in the BRICS countries, are now facing challenges stemming from growing labour mobility and international migration, as well as the expanding participation of women in paid employment, thus limiting the availability of home-based care for elderly family members within a given family, and leading to a heightened risk of social isolation and poverty in old age. In those counties where the government plays a more active role in supporting the social welfare of their populations, an increase in the share of senior citizens and the elderly may lead to rising expenditures on healthcare systems, pension provision, social assistance, and long-term care, as well as to an overall deterioration in the living conditions and quality of life for the elderly due to a lack of resources.

Meanwhile, a later start to population ageing makes it possible to seek guidance from the existing body of experience in shaping policy under conditions of demographic change that has accumulated both in Western countries and in separate BRICS member states, primarily Russia, and to some degree China and Brazil, as well as the international recommendations on population ageing issues that have been put forth by both the UN and the WHO. At the international level, the concept of sustainable ageing is widely shared. Sustainable ageing holds that society and the state should adapt the economy, as well as urban and transportation infrastructure, public healthcare facilities, and social assistance programmes toward the task of supporting a rapidly growing population of senior citizens and the elderly in ways that do not contribute to the depletion of natural resources or the overburdending of social and healthcare infrastructure. At the heart of the concept of sustainable development lies the twin ideas of "active ageing" and "healthy ageing," which are being promoted by the WHO with a focus on quality of life and personal autonomy for senior citizens and the elderly through adapting the environment and improving the health, security, and comfort of senior citizens and the elderly while supporting their more active participation in family life, society at large, and paid employment.

 An analysis of the metrics that show whether a given country is prepared for the ageing of its population and the degree of its potential for instituting active ageing programmes, including international indices of active ageing, shows that the common limitation that virtually all BRICS countries face is the insufficient development of an age-friendly environment and the corresponding infrastructure to support it. Together with this, in Russia it is important to focus on the low level of healthy life expectancy, weak engagement of senior citizens and the elderly in sports activities, and limited access to medical services. In China and India, senior citizens and the elderly are facing problems with access to paid employment; in Indonesia, the active ageing potential is limited by the low level of education and low level of access to information and communications technologies among the 60-plus population cohort. In virtually all of the BRICS countries, with the exception of Russia and the UAE, senior citizens and the elderly face a high risk of poverty and limited access to pension provision and social assistance programmes. All of the BRICS countries face the critical task of developing infrastructure for long-term care, although Russia and China are already implementing pilot projects to address this need. 

Opportunities for improving the quality of life of the population in the context of an ageing population are significantly restrained by social and economic inequality, which remains at moderate to high levels across the majority of BRICS countries, with the UAE being the sole exception. Cumulatively over the course of a lifetime, inequality leads to a higher risk of dependence, poverty, and vulnerability in old age.

Despite the fact that virtually all BRICS countries have formally adopted national strategy documents to address population ageing, a lack of funding coupled with undeveloped infrastructure has produced a gap between declared policy goals and the actual implementation of active ageing programmes. Significant interregional and population-based disparities in the level of development of social infrastructure require that action be taken to work out targeted regional programmes focused on active ageing and healthy ageing.

The common challenge presented by the rapid ageing of their respective populations and a range of barriers to tapping into the potential offered by active ageing programmes in the BRICS countries may serve as an impetus for conducting joint research on ageing and its consequences, with a focus on both the biomedical aspects of ageing and the psychological, social, and economic aspects of ageing. The BRICS countries need to organise a system for gathering empirical data (including longitudinal studies of elderly populations using a common methodology) as well as a system of metrics that enable the statistical monitoring of progress in active ageing and sustainable ageing, which moreover would be capable of accounting for specific sociocultural characteristics, established models of intergenerational relations, and the specific features of income generation, among other factors.

The aforementioned diversity among BRICS countries in a number of demographic and economic metrics and social policy models can ensure a wide spectrum of practical experience in implementing relevant policy measures aimed at meeting and overcoming the challenges of ageing. The exchange of acquired experience, including experience related to practical measures of evidence-based socio-demographic policy, may become the basis for cooperation between and among the BRICS countries with the ultimate goal of promoting the overall prosperity of the alliance. Such cooperation, together with public health and healthcare development initiatives that have already been implemented, may entail developing long-term care systems, including social insurance for long-term care and educational programmes, including for increasing computer/digital, financial, and legal literacy, as well as personal assistant devices and technologies and, more widely, developing "age-friendly" cities and other critical infrastructure solutions.